Held on December 12 at 12 PM Amsterdam time. Prof Kobi Michael (senior researcher at INSS) and Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Bock (Senior Fellow thinc.) interviewed by Andrew Tucker (Director thinc.)
Based on thinc.’s webinar on the Future of the Two States Solution held on Tuesday December 12th, 2023, please find several important points discussed.
Realistic? It is questionable whether the two states solution is realistic at this time. There is a zero-sum conflict between Fatah and Hamas. Moreover the Palestinian Authority (currently controlled by Fatah) is dysfunctional and corrupt.
A broader conflict: It is also important to realize that the conflict in Gaza is part of a broader conflict. Israel is fighting a campaign led by Iran and Qatar, supported by Turkey, to destroy Israel. That war is being fought on several fronts -including the West Bank, South Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. In fact, this is not just a war against Israel – it is a war against the West. The creation and recognition of a Palestinian state will do nothing to end that war. (Continues below the video)
Watch the webinar here:
International law: From the perspective of international law, the Palestinian people have a right of self-determination, but this does not constitute a right to statehood. Moreover, the right to self-determination must be exercised peacefully. It does not entitle you to use force to achieve your demands.
Palestinian Governance: The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) is still officially the representative of the Palestinian people. The PLO controls the Palestinian Authority, that was set up under the Oslo Accords. According to its own Charter, the PLO still aims at the destruction of the Jewish State of Israel. So if a “state of Palestine” is established, it will be controlled by an entity (the PLO) which is trying to destroy the Jewish State of Israel. Under international law, states cannot be allowed to come into existence if they are based on destruction of neighboring states.
The matter is even more complicated because Fatah/PA/PLO are in an existential fight with Hamas, which is even more radical in its call for jihad to kill Jews and destroy Israel. Hamas and Fatah are struggling for hegemony, influence and control over the Palestinian system.
The Palestinian Authority is dysfunctional in the West Bank. This is the reason that we see such a broad scale of intervention of the IDF in the Palestinian cities in the West Bank, which are under direct and full control of the Palestinian Authority – because the security apparatuses of the Palestinian Authority are simply not there in the cities and the refugee camps in the cities in the West Bank. The IDF and Israeli security establishment are doing the work that the Palestinian Authority should be doing to defeat terror.
West Bank and Gaza’s legal status: It is also important to note that the legal status of the West Bank and Gaza is unclear, and undetermined. Gaza has not been under Israeli occupation since Israel left Gaza in 2005, but since then there has been no sovereign. The West Bank is subject to the Oslo Accords, which created a temporary regime, but did not resolve the final status of the territory, or issues such as borders and settlements. So these are all issues that can only be resolved through negotiations.
The conflict is not territorial. This is shown by the fact that the Palestinians have rejected many concrete offers by Israel that would have given them up to 100% of the West Bank and Gaza. For example, the offer by Israeli Prime Minister Barak in 2000(Camp David) was rejected by Yassir Arafat, and the offer by PM Ehud Olmert in 2008 (Annapolis) was rejected by Mahmoud Abbas.
